Relying on the data alone, I would still be in doubt after 1000 bets, whether Pinnacle is profitable when arbing. Ultimately, after a sample size of 1500 bets, I am convinced that Pinnacle is sharp, and I have the feeling that I have spent 5.000 EURO at Pinnacle for the sake of my own comfort, money that I wish that I had not spent. It would be great to be part of the elite that bets on Pinnacle and is profitable in the long term, since Pinnacle does not restrict winners. However, this is does not seem possible with regular value betting and definitely not with arbing.
In summary, arbing comes at a price. You need larger turnover and stakes to compensate for the price of the insurance. The soft books will eventually limit or exclude any person who is profitable in the long term. They may do it based on “inappropriate betting pattern”, “suspicion of arbitrage play” or anything else written in their terms and conditions. These are all just phrases with one common goal: to reduce your possibilities as a profitable bettor, so that you are no longer a threat to their business. I do not blame the soft books, in fact their behavior is quite rational. The betting industry is funded only by people losing while (hopefully) having a good time, so any consistent winners are counterproductive and must be stopped with any means before they grow too big.
From the perspective of the soft books, it makes no difference whether a player is arbing or value betting, both methods bet on favorable/wrong odds and this is unprofitable for the bookmaker. In case of limiting, value betting has an advantage. Larger turnover and larger stakes will get you limited faster. So value betting with smaller stakes, while achieving the same ROI will keep you longer in the game. Once limited, you can continue to value bet, with smaller stakes close to max limit. It is still cost effective, since arbing takes much more time to do. My average stake size for value betting is only a quarter compared to arbitrage for that particular reason, but profits are at least the same. On average, it would take me 2 minutes to do an arb, because I would need to calculate stakes and bet at 2-3 different places, and many confirmation steps. It takes me only 20-30 seconds to do a value bet, because it is one bet and just a short mental calculation of the stake. Value betting can be done anywhere, for instance via the cell phone when waiting for the bus, it is like playing a video game on the cell phone, which most people do anyways. This is not so easy with arbing. If you use a betting service such as Trademate Sports it is really easy to register the bets you placed and keep track of your betting history.
The main reason why many people choose to do arbitrage is to avoid the unpleasant feeling of losing money. Arbitrage betting, or “surebetting”, gives you guaranteed profits on each bet regardless of the outcome. Well, this is not the same as completely risk-free, as surebets are quite sensitive to errors. Errors may occur when I accidentally place two bets on the same losing outcome without noticing, or when I cover one side of the bet, but the other bet has vanished in the meantime, when one bet is voided by the bookmaker, etc. Usually, arbing has larger stakes to compensate for the low ROI, so when something goes wrong it has a large impact. This happened to me 5 times in January 2016. Each time I was unlucky to lose money and each time I had the feeling that many hours of betting was lost. It took around 40-50 surebets, several days of work, to make up for one error. Still, for the experienced arbitrage bettor who makes fewer errors, the arbitrage strategy is quite risk-free.
In value betting, one has to accept, that although the overall tendency is upwards, there may be swings up and down, just like an index at the stock market. It is great when things go in your favor, you may get the feeling that you are on the road to become a millionaire next month. When things go bad you may get the opposite feeling, that this activity will eventually bankrupt you and you seriously start doubting whether there is something fundamentally wrong with your strategy. In both cases, emotions (rather than rationality) may have taken over. While emotion may be what motivates and drives people, it may be your enemy when you hit the winning streaks and losing streaks. You have applied a money management strategy, but still these unpleasant emotions may hit you, although you already knew that this is part of the game.
This is what happened to me when I first started betting. I had actually considered both strategies and I decided to value bet. Things were going great, but as soon as I got some downward swings after 50 bets in late August 2015, I felt uncomfortable and decided to begin my betting career doing arbitrage instead.
Find Value Bets in Sports Betting
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