The most popular sport in USA is NFL. There is 32 teams, that play 256 games in one season. Regular season starts in September and ends at the start of January.

Let’s take a look how much money can make one very good sports bettor in one regular NFL season if he plays every single game (1 game = 1 bet, spread for example). Let’s take an example, that he is very good and he will reach yield of 10% (some people call it ROI).

  • 256 games * $1000 = $256,000 risked money
  • Yield 10%: 0.1*$256,000 = $25,600
My betting model and how i bet baseball - underdog chance is much

Very good NFL bettor will make $25,600 of profit if he plays every single game and if he is very good.

On the other side, take example of a very good MLB bettor, with the same yield and if he also bet on every single game in regular MLB season.

My betting model and how i bet baseball - underdog chance 256 games

One regular MLB season has 2430 games and if we take that he bet on every single game (1 bet = 1 game).

  • 2430 games * $1000 = $2,4300,000 risked money
  • Yield 10%: 0.1*$2,4300,00 =$243,000 of profit

Very good MLB bettor will make $243,000 of profit, which is close to 10 times more than NFL bettor.

Of course reaching yield of 10% playing all NFL and MLB games is not possible, but I wanted to show you that potential in baseball is much bigger. Every day we have 10-15 games and if you are prepared to work hard on MLB analysis, I think there is no other sport that has so many opportunities.

There are also couple of other key reasons, why I bet baseball:

  • Huge market: This is not second league in voleyball, where the lines move quickly and where the limits are low. MLB is one of the biggest markets in sports betting world and in average you can bet much more than on any other smaller leagues.
  • Statistics: I am investor, not a gambler and I can not bet without analysis and without any statistics. Even if I made some intuition plays, I look first at the numbers. Statistics is very important for me. Baseball is sport with the biggest information about statistics. And we all know, that statistics and analytics is most important when it comes to predicting the future results. All successful businesses us it and I am huge believer, that traditional handicapping without analytics will be dead soon too. So, when you have a lot of data, you can also make better predictions and analysis. It is much easier to analyse a sport with 2430 games and data sets, than only 256. I hope you agree with me.
  • Underdogs: An average bettor is afraid to bet on underdogs. I think the main reason for that is because most bettors bet huge proportion of their bankroll (if they have one) and they are basically in a must-win situation every day. Underdogs in general are the teams, that has less than 50% of chance and of course they don’t want to be in a must-win situation, that has less than 50% of chance. Usually public is heavily with favourites and usually public lose a lot too. But in MLB baseball league the difference between the best team and the worst team is not that big. The best teams will win around 60% of games and the worst teams will still win around 40% of games. There is a lot of underdog wins every day and because of that a lot of chance for us, who are looking for the value, not for the winners.


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My betting model and how i bet baseball – underdog chance
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